Trends by industry: what is changing and which choices it demands

Most reports on industry trends read like a weather forecast for the whole economy: AI, sustainability, labour shortages, changing consumers. You nod, close the report and carry on as before. That is not a lack of discipline. A general trend simply does not tell a shopkeeper, a restaurateur, a hotelier or a salon owner what to do on Monday.

The trends by industry in this section start from a narrower question: what does this development do to the revenue, costs and position of a business like yours, and which choice follows from it? Every article lists ten developments for one industry and ends each one with a concrete trade-off. Some choices are about price, some about staff or channels, and a few are about whether to stay in a segment at all.

Four industries, four different margin engines

The same trend hits industries in different places. Higher wages squeeze a salon far harder than a furniture shop, while a commission increase at a booking platform hurts a hotel more than a hairdresser. So first check where the money goes in your own industry.

For real averages, open the industry figures: turnover, margins and cost structure per NACE sector, averaged across the EU member states. Read them with care in owner-run businesses. Where the owner works in the shop or behind the chair without a salary, the operating result includes the owner's pay, so the industry margin looks higher than what is actually left over.

Trends by industry: one article per sector

How to use a trend article in four steps

1. 01

   Pick the trends that hit you

   Not all ten apply. Mark the three to five with the largest effect on your own business in the next two to three years, and park the rest.

2. 02

   Put a figure on each one

   Translate the trend into a line of your profit and loss account. A wage increase of 5% on staff costs of €200,000 costs €10,000 a year, and at a gross margin of 40% you need €25,000 of extra sales just to stand still. Compare your starting point with the industry figures.

3. 03

   Set the trends against your strengths

   The same trend is a threat to one business and an opening for another. Put your chosen trends in a SWOT analysis and work out the options in a TOWS matrix.

4. 04

   Choose and write it down

   Decide what you will do, what you will stop doing and how you will know it works. Record it in a one-page strategic plan and look at it again every quarter.

Fictitious Firmfocus example in step 2: extra sales needed = extra cost / gross margin, so €10,000 / 0.40 = €25,000. The logic works in any currency.

Is your industry not listed?

The method works for any sector. Start with the industry figures for your NACE code, then scan the wider environment with a PESTLE analysis and judge how much profit your industry leaves with Porter's five forces. Developments that cut across every industry, such as AI, labour shortages, energy costs and supply chain risk, are covered in strategic themes.

The trend articles are part of Strategy, next to the analysis models and the planning process. If you are about to open a business in one of these industries, the start-up guides for an online store, a restaurant or café and a clothing store cover the figures, rules and first-year risks.