Energy strategy: grow and invest when energy is expensive and the grid is full

A new production line is approved, the building permit is in, and then the grid operator writes that a heavier connection may take years. Or the switch from gas to electric equipment turns out to need more power than the site can get. Many firms meet the limits of the grid only when the investment is already planned.

An energy strategy deals with two questions at once: how to keep energy costs under control when prices are high and volatile, and how to grow when the electricity grid has no room for you. The second question is new for many firms, and it changes the order in which you decide.

Grid congestion is now a constraint on growth

The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports that more than 2,500 gigawatts of projects, covering renewables, storage and large loads such as data centres, are stalled in grid connection queues worldwide (source: IEA, February 2026). It calls a lack of grid capacity a bottleneck in many regions, with grid investment lagging far behind investment in generation. The same report notes that elevated electricity prices put pressure on industries and businesses.

For a business this shows up locally. In the Netherlands, for example, grid operators keep waiting lists for companies that need a new or heavier connection (source: Netbeheer Nederland, October 2026), and the IEA figures show that large new loads wait in other countries too. Grid congestion (a grid that cannot take more demand or supply at peak moments in an area) is a regional matter: one industrial estate may be full while the next has room.

A place in the queue is not extra capacity

Where capacity is short, grid operators ration it. The rules differ: some connect in order of application, others give priority to certain social functions or to projects that are ready to build, and many offer flexible arrangements while the grid is reinforced. Three things hold almost everywhere:

• Priority changes the order, not the amount: if others move ahead, you wait longer.
• An application left too late loses time: waiting until the business case is final means joining the queue at the back.
• Flexible contracts trade certainty for speed: you get capacity sooner, but may be asked to cut use at busy grid hours.

What it means for your strategy

Options behind the meter and with the grid operator

On your own site

• Efficiency: insulation, heat recovery, better controls and fixing compressed-air leaks lower both the bill and the peak.
• Peak management: stagger machine start-ups and shift flexible loads, such as cooling, charging and heating water, to quieter hours.
• Storage: a battery or a heat buffer covers short peaks and stores cheap or self-generated energy.
• Own generation: solar panels lower the bill, but help with the connection only if they produce when you consume.

With the grid operator or neighbours

• Flexible or non-firm connection: extra capacity in exchange for limits at busy grid hours.
• Group contract or energy hub: neighbouring firms share one connection and spread their peaks.
• Shared connection: use the unused capacity of a neighbour with a different usage pattern.

Prices need a plan as well: buy part of your energy forward in tranches rather than all at once, and add an energy clause to long customer contracts so a price shock does not eat your margin. The guide on supply chain risk explains how such clauses work.

When to apply for what

1. 01

   Now: know your peak and your room

   Get your quarter-hourly or hourly usage data, find your real peak and check the grid operator's capacity information for your area.

2. 02

   As soon as a plan is serious: apply

   Submit the connection request early. Withdrawing later usually costs less than years of waiting.

3. 03

   At the same time: explore alternatives

   Ask about flexible contracts and talk to neighbours about sharing capacity.

4. 04

   Every quarter: review the signals

   Queue position, grid publications for your area, energy prices and interest rates, with an agreed trigger for each.

• Check your country: who operates your local grid, whether it publishes capacity maps, how the queue and any priority rules work, and which flexible connection products exist. Rules differ by country and region and change as grids are reinforced.

Investing when you do not know when the power comes

High interest rates and uncertainty push towards waiting, but waiting has a price: competitors with grid room take the orders. Split the plan into three layers. First, what pays off now under any outcome, such as efficiency and peak management. Second, what keeps options open at limited cost, such as a place in the queue, cable ducts and space for a battery. Third, what depends on the connection, such as full electrification, which you decide on when the date is known. Scenario planning helps to test the layers against different futures.

Worked example: an industrial bakery that wants to grow

Fenwick Bakery has 90 staff and bakes bread for supermarkets, mostly at night. It wants a second production line and plans to replace its gas ovens with electric ones. Its connection allows 1,000 kW and its current peak is 850 kW. The new line adds 300 kW and electric ovens another 600 kW: a total of 1,750 kW, or 750 kW more than the connection. The area is congested and the application is on a waiting list without a date.

Fictitious Firmfocus example. 850 + 300 + 600 = 1,750 kW; 1,750 - 1,000 = 750 kW. The logic works in any currency.

Peak management brings the current peak down from 850 to 680 kW, so the new line fits within the existing connection: 680 + 300 = 980 kW. Fenwick keeps its application in the queue, asks the grid operator for a flexible contract for night hours, and postpones the electric ovens. Meanwhile it installs heat recovery from the gas ovens into proofing and washing, and the new hall gets cable ducts and space for a battery. Solar is not dropped, but it is judged on the energy bill, not on the connection problem.

The bakery tracks four signals each quarter: the offered connection date, the grid operator's congestion updates, gas and power prices, and the interest rate on its loan. If there is still no date or flexible contract after two years, it starts looking for a second site.

Small business or larger organisation

Pitfalls

• Buying equipment before power: a heat pump or electric oven without the connection is an expensive spare.
• Applying late: every month of waiting for the final business case is a month lost in the queue.
• Judging solar on the wrong question: panels lower the bill, but rarely solve a peak that falls outside daylight hours.
• Postponing everything: efficiency and peak management pay off whatever the grid does.
• One price, one future: a business case calculated on today's energy price alone.

Energy is one of the strategic themes that set the room for a growth plan, and it often moves with geopolitics and supply chain risk. Put energy prices and grid capacity in your PESTLE analysis, and find the full method under Strategy.